The Friendship Factor

New Home Sales Pick Up in Las Vegas

Housing Starts Dec 2007-Nov 2009With less inventory available in Las Vegas, many home buyers are electing to purchase new homes.  This was reflected in the fact that Housing Starts jumped last month as builders got back to business.  It’s a telling sign for the economy, but bad news for next season’s sellers.

With more homes coming online, home prices may be slow to rise nationwide.

A “Housing Start” is a privately-owned home on which construction has started. In November, starts rose by nearly 9 percent while remaining within the same tight range we’ve seen since June.

More interesting that Housing Starts, though, is the accompanying data for Housing Permits. After a 5-month plateau, Housing Permits finally broke through, posting its largest number in 12 months.

This, too, bodes poorly for sellers.

Housing permits are precursors to housing starts so because the number of permits are higher today, we expect that the number of starts will be higher just a few months from now.

According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.

More permits means more starts which, in turn, leads to a larger home inventory. And when home supplies grow faster than the home demand, prices fall.

Throughout the early part of 2010, low mortgage rates and federal tax credits should help hold demand high but if builders flood the market with new, quality product, sellers may find that they’ve lost some of their leverage.

For home buyers, the rise in starts is welcomed.  If you wish to search for New Homes in Las Vegas please click my button at the top to search for New Homes in Las Vegas.

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An Explanation of the Federal Reserves Minutes for Las Vegas Residents

Explaining the FOMC press release December 16, 2009Home buyers and Home Owners in Las Vegas need to pay attention to what the Fed is saying.  Changes in interest rates will be dictated not only by the Feds actions, but what the market perceives what the Federal Reserve will do.

Living here in Las Vegas it is difficult to agree with the Fed’s perception on the economy, but remember this is a National Outlook, not a local outlook.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy “has continued to pick up”, that the jobs markets is getting better, and that housing market has shown “some signs of improvement” lately.

It’s the fourth straight statement in which the Fed speaks optimistically about the U.S. economy – a signal that the worst of the recession is likely behind us.

The economy isn’t without threats, however, and the Fed identified several, including:

  1. Tight credit conditions for consumers
  2. Reluctancy of businesses to hire new workers
  3. Lower overall housing wealth

The message’s overall tone remained positive, however and inflation appears to be held in check.

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to honor its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage bond market.  That plan — due to expire at the end of March 2010 –  should be noted by today’s homebuyers. Fed insiders estimate that the program suppressed rates by 1 percent through 2009.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is negative.  Mortgage rates are rising this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is January 26-27, 2010.

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Fannie Mae Gets Tough(er) On Borrowers. Again.

Being approved for a mortgage is getting tougherFannie Mae raised the bar for mortgage applicants this past weekend.  Getting approved for a home loan just got harder.

In its official announcement, Fannie Mae says the updates minimize long-term lending risks.  If that’s the case, this won’t be the last guideline change Fannie Mae makes — especially with loans defaulting at an above-normal clip.

The immediate changes are major. The first pertains to credit scores.

Effective December 13, 2009, the bulk of Fannie Mae’s loans require a 620 credit score minimum.  There are very few exceptions.

A second relates to loans with private mortgage insurance.

Homeowners whose loan-to-value exceeds 80 percent now have a choice:

  1. Pay higher mortgage insurance premiums month-after-month
  2. Pay a one-time fee paid at closing to compensate for higher risk

Both options result in higher consumer loan costs.

A third change concerns maximum debt-to-income ratio. Fannie Mae will no longer approve loans with debt ratios exceeding 45 percent except with very strong assets and very high credit scores.

In no case whatsoever may debt-to-income exceed 50 percent.

There are other changes, too, including the elimination of seldom-used mortgage products and additional risk-based fees for “expanded level” mortgage approvals.  These updates affect just a small part of the population.

So, home prices are rebounding, mortgage rates are low, and — for 5 more months at least — there’s a federal tax credit for qualified buyers.  You don’t have to buy a home now, but with mortgage guidelines sure to tighten in 2010, now may be a better time than later.

The best “deal” won’t matter if you can’t get qualified on your mortgage.

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The Federal Reserve’s Relationship To Mortgage Rates

Interest rate spread between the 30-year fixed rate mortgage and Fed Funds Rate (2000-2009)The Federal Open Market Committee meets today for the last time in 2009.  It’s a 2-day meeting and the Fed is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 percent.

But that doesn’t mean mortgage rates won’t change.

See, a major misperception among the public is that the Federal Reserve sets mortgage rates. That’s false.  Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds.

As an example, since 2000, the Fed Funds Rate and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage have been within 1 percent of each other at times, and as far apart as 5 percent at others.

If there was a direct relationship between the two, such a spread would be impossible.

The Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates. Wall Street does.  However, whenever the Fed adjourns from its meetings, mortgage rates are susceptible to change.

For home buyers and rate shoppers, this week’s Fed meeting takes on added significance.

Over the last half-year, the Fed has used its post-meeting press releases to acknowledge an improving economy in which growth is tempered by job loss and tepid spending.  In November, though, net job gains nearly went positive and Retail Sales data proved strong.

If the Fed gets more positive in its message tomorrow, mortgage rates will suffer.  This is because Wall Street will use the Fed’s position on the economy as a reason to buy stocks.  Some of the cash to fuel those buys will come from the mortgage bond market.

As extra bond supply hits Wall Street, mortgage rates go up.

Similarly, if the Fed’s message goes negative on the economy, investors are expected to sell their stock positions in favor of buying bonds.  This makes rates go down.

So, the Federal Reserve doesn’t make mortgage rates, but it does exert an influence on them.  In other words, rate shoppers would be wise to watch for the FOMC’s 2:15 PM adjournment.  Even though the Fed Funds Rate is expected to remain unchanged, mortgage rates certainly are not.

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How To Trim Your Utility Bill Without Inconveniencing Yourself

Winter moved in quickly here in Las Vegas.  Here are some tips that can help you.  Please visit my earlier post on How To Stop Money Flowing Out of Your Home. The average family spends $2,200 per year in electric bills and the average home is responsible for twice the amount of greenhouse gases than the average automobile.

Whether you want to save money or save the environment, this 5-minute piece from the NBC Today Show is for you. In it, Read the rest of this entry »

Store Credit Cards : The Hidden Cost of “Instant Savings”

Credit Score makeup‘Tis the season to do shopping — and get bombarded with offers to open credit cards.

The deals are tempting, too. ”Open a charge card today” and save up to 20% on your purchase. Considering that the average Black Friday ticket was $343, that’s $68 saved per store.

For big-ticket items like televisions, the savings are even bigger.

But for people in the market for a new home — or looking to refinance — taking advantage of in-store savings could be a long-term money loser.

Every time you apply for a credit card, your credit score drops.

Read the rest of this entry »

Get Your Home Ready For Listing : How To Eliminate Home Odors Completely

Difficult home odors plague homeowners.  Ground into rugs, absorbed into walls, and clinging to furntiture, some smells are slow to fade, leaving lasting impressions on both guests and potential buyers. Often, that impression is unfavorable.

Do something about it.

In this 4-minute piece from NBC’s The Today Show, you’ll learn how to eliminate bad smells and prevent them from returning.  It’s all basic direction, too:

  • How to use the porous nature of wood to your advantage
  • How to remove get “smoke smell” out of a wall
  • How to improve a home’s air quality by cleaning carpets

For more serious offenses, the video covers in-home air purifiers, too.

“Smelly homes” are undesirable and can make your home less attractive to buyers.  Watch the video, follow the instruction, and declare your home an Odor-Free Zone.

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Banks Raise Mortgage Qualification Standards

Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey Q3 2009Despite the economy’s improvement and prodding from Congress, banks don’t seem ready to open their purse strings just yet.

Nationally, mortgage approval standards are tightening.

The data comes from a quarterly survey the Federal Reserve sends to its member banks.  The Fed asks senior bank loan officers around the country whether “prime” residential mortgage guidelines had tightened in the last 3 months.

For the period July-September 2009:

  • Roughly 1 in 4 banks said guidelines tightened
  • Roughly 3 in 4 banks said guidelines were “basically unchanged”

Just one bank said its guidelines had loosened.

Combine the Fed’s survey with recent underwriting updates from the FHA and from Fannie Mae and it becomes clear that mortgage lenders are much more cautious about their loans than they were, say, 2 years ago.

Today’s borrowers face a host of hurdles including:

  • Higher minimum FICO scores
  • Larger downpayment requirements for purchases
  • Larger equity positions for refinances
  • Lower debt-to-income ratios

In other words, mortgage rates may stay low into 2010, but that won’t matter to homeowners that don’t meet minimum eligibility standards.  With each passing quarter, that list gets smaller.

Therefore, if you’re on the fence about whether now is a good time to buy a home, remember that, along with an increase in mortgage approval standards, home values are rising, too.

Acting sooner is probably better than acting later.

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In What Direction Should My Ceiling Fan Blades Rotate?

This is something I always discuss with my home buyer’s here in Las Vegas.  It’s November.  The temperature is just starting to drop in Las Vegas.   For homeowners with ceiling fans, let this be a reminder to reverse your units’ blade rotation.

Watch this 2-minute video for a hands-on demonstration of changing the direction of your ceiling fans, plus a clever test using ordinary tissue to see if you’ve done it properly.

In the cooler months, the blades of a ceiling fan should be set to rotate clockwise.  It forces warm air at the top of a room to recirculate downward into the “living space”.  Proper blade rotation can change a room’s “feel” by 8 degrees or more, allowing for more modest settings on a home thermostat.

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Congress Expands And Extends The First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit

First-Time Home Buyer expanded and extendedGood news for home buyers in Las Vegas.  Congress both extended and expanded the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit program Thursday.

The White House says the President will sign it into law today.

The up-to-$8000 tax credit’s expiration date has been pushed forward to spring, requiring homebuyers to be under contract by April 30, 2010, and to be closed by June 30, 2010.

The program’s basic eligibility requirements remain the same:

  • Buyers can’t purchase the home from a parent, spouse, or child
  • Buyers can’t purchase the home from an entity in which they’re a majority owner
  • Buyers can’t acquire the home by gift or inheritance
  • All parties to the purchase must meet eligibility requirements

The new law includes some notable updates, however.

For one, the definition of “first-time home buyer” has been expanded to include most homeowners with at least 5 years in their current home.  “Move-up” buyers like these are now eligible for IRS tax credits, but with a cap at $6,500.

This means that you don’t have to be a true first-time home buyer to claim the “first-time home buyer tax credit”.

Other eligibility changes include:

  • The subject property’s sales price may not exceed $800,000
  • The subject property must be a primary residence
  • Income thresholds raised to $125,000 for single-filers and $225,500 for joint-filer

And remember, the First-Time Home Buyer program grants a tax credit as opposed to a deduction.  This means that a tax filer would receive a cash payment of $2,000 from the U.S. Treasury if his “normal” tax liability totals $6,000 and he was eligible for all $8,000 available under the new law.

The complete list of qualifying criteria is posted on the IRS website.  Be sure to review it with a tax professional to determine your eligibility.  Then mark your calendar for April 30, 2009.

It’s 5 months away.

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